Making Iran Normal: Integration, Not Isolation, Is the Key
19 Jan 2011 18:58 by REZA SANATI in Miami http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2011/01/making-iran...
...In many ways, it is the United States that has not recovered from the Iranian Revolution. And since that cataclysmic event, Revolutionary Iran has been deemed a threat to the American security establishment's vital interests in the oil-rich Middle East. Hence, what Washington seeks is not necessarily regime change, but regime normalization, which over time, would lead to more conventional and predictable state behavior on Tehran's part. In other words, from the American perspective, the functional questions is: How can the Iranian Revolution be concluded and Iranian conduct, both domestically and globally, be normalized as demanded by international law and expected by international norms?
Reza Sanati is a research fellow at the Middle East Studies Center in Miami and a Ph.D. candidate at the Florida International University School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA).
‘the issue is Iran’s ‘normalization and integration...”
Iran The revolution is over
The Economist Global Network:, the worlds leading global executives: Intelligence, Insight and Interaction
Our special report in this issue describes a country whose revolutionary fire has been extinguished...the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Green revolution to topple him in 2009, the chaotic Arab spring... discredited radical politics and boosted pragmatic centrists...though not a democracy, Iran is not a straightforward dictatorship...The further the 1979 revolution recedes, the more normal Iran will tend to become... further eclipsed by everyday worries, making money and doing business. Iran will not suddenly abandon its nuclear programme... is not about to become friendly to America, or stop meddling in its region. But if the regime feels it can escape the fate of Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi, who gave up onnuclear weapons only to be toppled, a curb will seem less of a gamble...Iran’s region is dangerous, too. Islamic State threatens allies in Iraq, president Assad and Hizbullah, its ally in Lebanon, are engulfed by the war in Syria.. the P5+1 should be patient... The world should neither break the talks with impossible demands, nor give way to Iran for fear there will never be a better opportunity...P5+1 should hold out for the right deal. It would be good if they got one next month, but no disaster if they don’t.
"Nukes are secondary'
1997 the most dangerous threat to US HEGEMONY
Potentially the most dangerous scenario would be a grand coalition of China, Russia and perhaps Iran, an 'anti-hegemonic' coalition united not by ideology but by complementary political grievances... reminiscent in scale and scope of the challenge posed by the Sino-Soviet bloc, though this time China would likely be the leader and Russia the follower. Averting this contingency...will require a display of U.S. geostrategic skill on the western ,eastern, and southern perimeters of Eurasia simultaneously.’
The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives, 1997, by Zbigniew K. Brzezinski
"Which Path to Persia? Options for a New American Strategy Toward Iran"
June 2009, from the Brookings Institution Saban Center http://www.scribd.com/doc/108902116/brookings-institution-s-which-path-t..., p.52
Reviewed by CIA to prevent disclosure of classified information
"...any military operation against Iran will likely be very unpopular around the world and require the proper international context—both to ensure the logistical support the operation would require and to minimize the blowback from it. The best way to minimize international opprobrium and maximize support (however, grudging or covert) is to strike only when there is widespread conviction the Iranians were given but rejected a superb offer—one so good that only a regime determined to acquire nuclear weapons and acquire them for the wrong reasons would turn it down. Under those circumstances, the United States (or Israel) could portray its operations as taken in sorrow, not anger, and at least some in the international community would conclude the Iranians “brought it on themselves” by refusing a very good deal."
President Obama Statement on Iran:
The Iranian government must understand that the world is watching. We mourn each and every innocent life that is lost. We call on the Iranian government to stop all violent and unjust actions against its own people. The universal rights to assembly and free speech must be respected, and the United States stands with all who seek to exercise those rights.
Clinton said in a separate interview with the BBC's Kim Ghattas, that Iran could be permitted to maintain its own domestic uranium enrichment program, for civilian purposes, if and when it proves to the international community that it can be trusted to do so. "We've told them that they are entitled to the peaceful use of civil nuclear energy, but they haven't yet restored the confidence of the international community to the extent where it would feel comfortable allowing them to enrich. They can enrich uranium at some future date once they have demonstrated that they can do so in a responsible manner in accordance with international obligations" Clinton told the BBC. Clinton progress with Iran was linked to the Iranian government's actions on other items on the U.S. agenda. "We'll have to see how the Iranians respond on the other things ... http://wayback.archive-it.org/2017/20101203231549/http://thecable.foreig...
Fears Hasten New Regional Alliances
11/17/13 Tel Aviv, http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/world_news/Middle_East/article1...
Sworn enemies unite against Tehran to curb its ambitions, Netanyahu and King Abdullah have a common interest in a possible air attack on Iran
The interim Iran nuclear deal is worth celebrating, but it’s just a small piece of a much bigger puzzle.
by David Rothkopf, http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/04/03/a-time-for-fist-bumping-iran-nuclear...
David Rothkopf, CEO and Editor of the FP Group A Trusted Advisor for Global Leaders When the Stakes are Highest
...The greatest threat posed by Iran is not its development of nuclear weapons... it is secondary to Iran’s active, aggressive, and long-term strategy of seizing influence in the region by whatever means necessary. For three and a half decades, Iran has systematically supported proxies.. destabilizing the region or gaining direct control over important territories and peoples....
If the president’s remarks Thursday were more than just words and he really intends to insist his team works with traditional allies in the region to not only increase their ability to counterbalance Iran but to actually take action to do so, then perhaps we can remedy the consequences of the reactive half-measures and hesitations of the past six years.. If Obama meets with the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as promised and works out a real plan, backed up with real resources, better communication, and more dependable action that brings them around to actively continue to counter Iran (rather than warm it in the wake of the deal and thus give it more room to dominate in the region), that would be welcome progress and frankly of much greater near- to medium-term consequence than this deal...a much, much greater challenge remains — shaping, executing, and convincing our allies to go along with the kind of regional strategy we lack but require. For it’s that strategy that will determine whether this deal is a turning point for the better or whether it will someday be seen as a well-intentioned but ultimately dangerous distraction from addressing the snakes’ nest of problems currently bedeviling the modern Middle East.
Iran demanded America's expulsion from the international nuclear system.
Iran's Supreme Leader calls US 'the world's only atomic criminal' at Teheran International Conference
The Iranian government staged the meeting in response to President Barack Obama's summit on nuclear security in Washington
4/17/10 By Damien McElroy in Tehran, www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/7600901/Iran-calls-US...
"Only the US government has committed an atomic crime. The world's only atomic criminal lies and presents itself as being against nuclear weapons proliferation, while it has not taken any serious measures in this regard," said Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a message to the summit. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called for the establishment of a new international weapons regime independent of Western political interference.
DISARM AND MODERNIZE
In terms of warhead numbers, the nuclear arms race may be over. But massive US weapons upgrades now underway challenge the entire disarmament regime.
In addition to retaining tactical nukes in Europe, the United States plans to modernize the weapons, as well as its arsenal back home, in a remarkably expensive way. This decision has inflamed debate about the depth of the U.S. commitment to the Nuclear Non--Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which allows the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France to have nuclear weapons if they promise to eventually disarm.
Today, weapons innovation threatens to become the new mode for arms competition. Washington’s upgrading of the B61-4 bomb, for example, would equip the device with a tail assembly, making it into a precision-guided standoff weapon. An irony is attached to this redesigned device, called the B61-12: It would be able to attack the same targets as previous gravity bombs in the U.S. arsenal, but would do so more accurately and efficiently, using smaller yields that would create less collateral damage and less radioactive fallout. This means the bombs might be seen as more conceivably usable in limited or tactical conflict..
WHY U.S. GUARANTEES PROXY’S OME
Obama Tells Times Columnist Thomas L. Friedman Iran Deal Would Not Threaten Israel’s Military Edge
Ensuring Israel's QME (Qualitative Military Edge)
Andrew J. Shapiro, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Political-Military Affairs to The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
President Obama said: “the United States sees the historic changes sweeping the Middle East and North Africa as a moment of great challenge, but also a moment of opportunity for greater peace and security for the entire region, including the State of Israel.”…"A Strong Partnership Supports U.S. National Security. So let me first turn to why this relationship is so important to the United States…The most direct tool the US uses to ensure Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge is security assistance. For some three decades, Israel has been the leading beneficiary of US security assistance through the Foreign Military Financing program, FMF...each year Israel accounts for 60% of U.S. security assistance funding distributed through FMF...Ensuring Israel’s military strength and superiority in the region, is critical to regional stability and as a result is fundamentally a core US interest. The US and Israel also see eye to eye on a host of strategic questions...a new Washington Institute report by Robert Blackwill and Walter Slocombe articulates the strategic benefits of the relationship for the United States...” Israel as a vital ally serves as a cornerstone of our regional security commitments....
Peres: We cannot exist without the United States
Israeli President Shimon Peres: "We cannot exist alone. For our existence we need the friendship of the United States of America. It doesn't sound easy, but this is the truth," he said. In a speech to Jewish leaders Thursday evening broadcast by Israel Army Radio, Peres urged the Israelis to try to meet US demands in order to be assured of their existence.
Israel could send Iran ‘back to the stone age’ with electromagnetic bomb
BY AARON KALMAN September 9, 2012, 1:26 pm The Times of Israel http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-could-destroy-irans-electric-network
“Many key details will be finalized over the next three months, and nothing is agreed to until everything is agreed.” He also said, “Of course, this deal alone, even if fully implemented, will not end the deep divisions and mistrust between our two countries. We have a difficult history between us. And our concerns will remain with respect to Iranian behavior so long as Iran continues its sponsorship of terrorism, its support for proxies who destabilize the Middle East, its threats against America’s friends and allies, like Israel. So make no mistake: We will remain vigilant in countering those actions and standing with our allies.”
4/2/15 Obama Rose Garden speech quoted in this Foreign Policy article:
US soft-hard power merged since 2010
Pentagon Upgraded Biggest ‘Bunker Buster’ Bomb as Iran Talks Unfolded
Updated April 3, 2015 5:22 p.m. ET http://www.wsj.com/articles/pentagon-worked-to-improve-biggest-bunker-bu...
WASHINGTON—The Pentagon has upgraded and tested the largest bunker-buster bomb in the U.S. arsenal, senior U.S. officials said, a weapon that could destroy or disable Iran’s most heavily fortified nuclear facilities should a nuclear deal fall apart and the White House decide to take military action....even as the Obama administration pursued a diplomatic approach..
GW Bush re: Nov. 2007 National Intelligence Estimate: “But after the NIE, how could I possibly explain using the military to destroy the nuclear facilities of a country the intelligence community said had no active nuclear weapons program?”
Putting Iran's Nuclear Program in Context
CFR, by Micah Zenko, http://blogs.cfr.org/zenko/2015/03/31/putting-iran-nuclear-program-in-co... (excerpt)
While Iran has no bomb or nuclear weapons program nine other countries do, including five that also signed the NPT. Under the treaty, the five signatories pledge to “pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating…to nuclear disarmament.” ...To repeat: Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapons program, nor does it possess a nuclear weapon. So when a politician, analyst, or pundit mentions an Iranian “nuclear weapons program” they are referring to a program the IC [U.S. Intelligence community] is not aware of... if possible, tell them to contact the CIA “report threats” website to let Iits nonproliferation analysts know... So while the world is focused on nonproliferation requirements of a country with zero bombs, keep in mind the promises that remain unfulfilled from those countries with 9,835 of bombs, as well as the four countries that are nuclear outliers: NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAPABILITIES BY COUNTRY & SOURCES [...]
Deputy Chief Commander: Iran's Defense Capabilities Not Negotiable
Apr 04, 2015 8:51 http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940115001199
"Iran's defense affairs will never be a topic of negotiation and we will never allow outside interference" in our military affairs, Brigadier General Jazzayeri told FNA on Saturday, reacting to recent threats and excessive demands of the arrogant powers...."Iran enjoys such a vast defensive power that it can confront (and defeat) any enemy even with an unparalleled level of power".. The general said the US continues to wrongly believe it can intimidate Iran into compliance. "But the Islamic Republic will give remorsing response to the enemies and ill-wishers, if necessary.. In relevant remarks Wednesday, Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan lashed out at US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter’s statement in an interview with NBC's Today Show Tuesday “the military option will certainly remain on the table if Tehran and the Group 5+1 (the US, Russia, China, France and Britain plus Germany) fail to strike a final agreement". Defense Minister General Dehqan said."Such remarks always being repeated by some US officials are passive and worthless,”... the US Defense Secretary seems to be suffering from Alzheimer's .."If Ashton Carter didn’t remembered past and recent defeats of the US in the region...
The IDefense Minister underlined Iran is always, under all types of conditions, ready to confront any hostile threat posed by aggressorss, the country will give its decisive response in the battlefield. Such statements by US officials, specially engaged in sensitive and complicated nuclear talks to get rid of baseless charges leveled against Iran are poisoning the logical atmosphere of the nuclear talks,. “Such remarks confirm Iran’s distrust in the US and will surely not influence Iran’s reasonable, rational and fair stances concerning the nuclear issue.”
Iran's New RQ-170 Sentinel Stealth Drone: Flight footage of Iranian version of US drone released
5/12/14 https://www.youtube.com/watch 5/12/14 http://rt.com/news/204939-iranian-version-us-drone/
The aircraft is said to be a ‘reverse-engineered’ homemade variant of a US spy drone, it shot down in 2011. The US RQ-170 Sentinel drone was seized three years ago when it was downed after entering Iranian airspace from Afghanistan on a CIA mission...“The Iranian version's weight is remarkably less, it consumes less fuel, its speed has been increased and the durationt it can fly has improved because of its enhanced body. The Americans used metal in building the body but we did not use metal at all. It helps to reduce its detectability by radars," General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the aerospace division of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, said on state TV.
VIDEO IRANIAN VERSION US STEALTH DRONE
This is not the first US drone to be captured by Iran. The less advanced Boeing Scan Eagle also being copied. was shot down flying over Iran from the Persian Gulf. ABC news reported that neither the CIA, the Air Force, nor the drone’s manufacturers, Lockheed Martin, had responded to requests to comment on the video.
5/10/14 Reuters Top News Iranian copy of U.S. reconnaissance drone captured in 2011 has aken first flight: http://reut.rs/1AW3CIq 1:47 PM - 10 Nov 2014
Iran deploys ‘real Iron Dome’ missile defense system
Published time: January 08, 2015 21:10 Edited time: January 10, 2015 13:27 http://rt.com/news/220999-iran-iron-dome-missile/
The “real Iron Dome” announcement was preceded by claims of several other ambitious achievements by Iranian military scientists. On Sunday, Fars reported Iran has developed “the world’s first missile evading drone.” According to its creator, the UAV “can escape thermal and air-to-air missiles and no missile can approach the drone any closer than 250 meters." The next day an Iranian military commander reported the successful testing of three “... drone cruise missiles have been fully manufactured by Iranian experts." Wednesday, Iranian Air Force spokesman General Hossein Chitforoush announced the Islamic Republic has begun large-scale mass production of the homemade Saeqeh fighter.
Russia and Iran defense deal 'may resolve' S300 missile delivery issue
January 20, 2015 21:22 http://rt.com/news/224443-russia-iran-defense-deal/
Moscow and Tehran have signed a military cooperation deal that implies wider collaboration in personnel training and counter-terrorism activities. It may also resolve the situation concerning the delivery of Russian S300 missiles, Iranian media reported. "A step has been taken in the direction of economic and military technologies cooperation, on at least such defensive systems as the S300 and S400 we would probably be delivering," said Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, also president of the International Center for Geopolitical Analysis... Western Sanctions have brought the two countries' positions on defense cooperation closer” he said...