1/29 Docs. expose US behind 'pro-democracy activists' in major soft power 'ME' war front

USAID chief to Congress: Don't play games with national security

1/28/11 Egypt protests: America's secret backing for leaders behind uprising
The American government secretly backed leading figures behind the Egyptian uprising who have been planning “regime change” for the past three years
The American Embassy in Cairo helped a young dissident attend a US-sponsored summit for activists in New York, while working to keep his identity secret from Egyptian state police.
On his return to Cairo in December 2008, the activist told US diplomats that an alliance of opposition groups had drawn up a plan to overthrow President Hosni Mubarak and install a democratic government in 2011. He has already been arrested by Egyptian security in connection with the demonstrations - his identity is being protected by The Daily Telegraph....
In a secret diplomatic dispatch, sent on December 30 2008, Margaret Scobey, the US Ambassador to Cairo, recorded that opposition groups had allegedly drawn up secret plans for “regime change” to take place before elections, scheduled for September this year. The memo, which Ambassador Scobey sent to the US Secretary of State in Washington DC, was marked “confidential” and headed: “April 6 activist on his US visit and regime change in Egypt.” It said the activist claimed “several opposition forces” had “agreed to support an unwritten plan for a transition to a parliamentary democracy, involving a weakened presidency and an empowered prime minister and parliament, before the scheduled 2011 presidential elections”. The embassy’s source said the plan was “so sensitive it cannot be written down”.
The secret document...

12/30/2028 TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, EG
REF: A. CAIRO 2462 B. CAIRO 2454 C. CAIRO 2431 Classified By: ECPO A/Mincouns
Catherine Hill-Herndon for reason 1.4 (d ). 1. (C) Summary and comment: On December 23, April 6 activist xxxxxxxxxxxx expressed satisfaction with participation in the December 3-5 \"Alliance of Youth Movements Summit,\" and with subsequent meetings with USG officials, on Capitol Hill, and with think tanks....
2. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx expressed satisfaction with the December 3-5 \"Alliance of Youth Movements Summit\" in New York, noting that he was able to meet activists from other countries and outline his movement's goals for democratic change in Egypt..
C) xxxxxxxxxxxx claimed several opposition forces -- including the Wafd, Nasserite, Karama and Tagammu parties, and the Muslim Brotherhood, Kifaya, and Revolutionary Socialist movements -- have agreed to support an unwritten plan for a transition to a parliamentary democracy, involving a weakened presidency and an empowered prime minister and parliament, before the scheduled 2011 presidential elections (ref C). According to xxxxxxxxxxxx, the opposition is interested in receiving support from the army and the police for a transitional government prior to the 2011 elections. xxxxxxxxxxxx asserted that this plan is so sensitive it cannot be written down. (Comment: We have no information to corroborate that these parties and movements have agreed to the unrealistic plan xxxxxxxxxxxx outlined. Per ref C, xxxxxxxxxxxx previously told us that this plan was publicly available on the internet. End comment.)....
8. (C) Comment: xxxxxxxxxxxx offered no roadmap of concrete steps toward April 6's highly unrealistic goal of replacing the current regime with a parliamentary democracy prior to the 2011 presidential elections. Most opposition parties and independent NGOs work toward achieving tangible, incremental reform within the current political context, even if they may be pessimistic about their chances of success. xxxxxxxxxxxx wholesale rejection of such an approach places him outside this mainstream of opposition politicians and activists.

11/11/2008 US State Department Chooses April 6th Movement To Take Part In Anti-Extremism Conference
The US State Department said the April 6th Movement will take part in an international conference in New York on December 3-5. The conference is organized by the US State Department in cooperation with a number of its allies in the private sector under the title: The Alliance of Youth Movements. The US department described the Egyptian movement as the ‘largest’ youth movement in Egypt and said that its support to such movements resulted in disputes with some regimes. Sean McCormack of the US Department of State said: "The conference aims to help youth combat extremism, using modern technology to help various groups come together to achieve that goal through facebook and blogs." ... The conference is held in cooperation with Facebook, Google, MTV, AT&T and Howcast. It covers activities of 360 Media and is participated by movements from Africa, Britain, the Middle East, Iraq, Afghanistan and Cuba.
US Assistant Secretary of State James Glassman said the April 6th, among 17 international organizations on the Internet, would take part in the conference that would be held at Colombia University in New York. He described the movement as Egypt’s largest pro-democracy youth group...Glassman said "We have chosen these organizations specifically because they have a record of nonviolence." In reply to a question that Egypt would not appreciate the role played by the US State of Department to create such alliance between youth movements that may be seen as a threat, Glassman said: "We support movements that defend democracy in the world and this may put us in dispute with some governments."...

Egypt’s April 6 movement gets behind ElBaradei
3/20/10 http://bikyamasr.com/wordpress/?p=10163
Among those present were Ahmed Maher, Mohamed Adel and other activists and members of the 6 April Youth Movement part of a larger group supporting ElBaradei’s National Association for Change currently collecting signatures on a statement that affirms their support for ElBaradei’s changes.

Mubarak Orders Crackdown, With Revolt Sweeping Egypt

Egyptians protesting US backed regime look at the tear gas canister just fired at them by riot police see MADE IN USA

Obama Cautions Embattled Ally Against Violence
...Senior Egyptian military commanders cut short a visit to the Pentagon Friday and headed to Cairo as the Egyptian Army was deployed to put down protests in the country’s streets, American military...The chief of staff of Egypt’s armed forces, Lt. Gen. Sami Hafez Enan, [had been] due to meet Monday with Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and remain with his delegation in Washington through next Wednesday.... Friday evening, Mr. Obama avoided the question of whether Mr. Mubarak needed to go. “Ultimately,” he said, “the future of Egypt will be decided by the Egyptian people.”

Mubarak Names Former Air Force Chief as New Egyptian PM
Omar Suleiman, 74, Mubarak's Intelligence Chief, with a long role in key policy areas, including the Palestinian-Israeli issue vital to Egypt's relationship with the U.S. its key ally and aid donor.

Omar Suleiman: Egypt's new vice president, and next strongman
By Issandr Amrani,
Egypt Mubarak picks vice-president for first time:
Omar Suleiman, 74, Mubarak's Intelligence Chief, with a long role in key policy areas, including the Palestinian-Israeli issue vital to Egypt's relationship with the U.S. its key ally and aid donor.

Omar Suleiman: Egypt's new vice president, and next strongman
By Issandr Amrani,
...Suleiman appears the only viable alternative to Gamal Mubarak. But who is this once-mysterious power player? And would he really mean a new era for Egypt? Like the elder Mubarak, Suleiman rose to national prominence through the armed forces. The arc of his career followed the arc of Egypt's political history. He attended the Soviet Union's Frunze Military Academy in the 1960s -- as Mubarak did a few years earlier -- and became an infantryman. He then took part in the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars, likely as a staff officer. When Cairo switched its strategic alliance from Moscow to Washington, he received training at the John F. Kennedy Special Warfare School and Center at Fort Bragg, N.C., in the 1980s. Suleiman continues to have privileged contacts with U.S. intelligence and military officials, with whom he has now been dealing for at least a quarter-century.
As the head of the Mukhabarat, Suleiman's political and military portfolio is vast. The GIS combines the intelligence-gathering elements of the CIA, the counterterrorism role of the FBI, the protection duties of the Secret Service, and the high-level diplomacy of the State Department.... monitoring Egypt's security apparatus for signs of internal coups. It is an elite institution, with a long reach inside government as well as abroad. It also crosses over the civilian and military worlds: Suleiman is one of a rare group of Egyptian officials who hold both a military rank (lieutenant general) and a civilian office (he is a cabinet minister, though he rarely attends meetings)....Most importantly, Suleiman has mediated in the Israel-Palestine conflict.... won the approval of the U.S.
Publicly, Suleiman has started to gain endorsements for the job from Egyptians across the political spectrum as the increasingly public discussion plays out of who will follow Mubarak...Abdel Halim Qandil has urged the military to save the country from a Mubarak dynasty... liberal intellectual Osama Ghazali Harb who turned to the opposition and founded the National Democratic Front party has openly advocated a military takeover followed by a period of "democratic transition." Hisham Kassem, head of the Egyptian Organization for Human Rights, also stated a Suleiman presidency would be vastly preferable to another Mubarak one. On Facebook, Twitter, and blogs, partisans of a Suleiman presidency make the same argument...
Suleiman supporters recognize that to gain the presidency he would most likely have to carry out a coup -- perhaps a soft, constitutional one, but a coup nonetheless. (It is possible, one analyst told me, that "the day Mubarak dies there will be tanks on the street.")... many Egyptians would find such a coup acceptable. The amendments to the Constitution were broadly viewed as illegitimate, and the regime's standing may be at an all-time low.Such a coup would prove more problematic for Egypt's foreign allies... by the rise of a new strongman, particularly after nearly a decade of fanfare around democracy promotion in Egypt. But what would the US do about it if the plotters were pro-American and the strongman broadly supported?

Egyptian Youths Drive the Revolt Against Mubarak
...The roots of the uprising that filled Egypt’s streets this week arguably stretch back to before the Tunisian revolt, which many protesters cited as the catalyst. Almost three years ago, on April 6, 2008, the Egyptian government crushed a strike by a group of textile workers in the industrial city of Mahalla, and in response a group of young activists who connected through Facebook and other social networking Web sites formed the April 6th Youth Movement in solidarity with the strikers. Their early efforts to call a general strike were a bust. But over time their leaderless online network and others that sprang up around it — like the networks that helped propel the Tunisian revolution... vaulting the online youth movement to the forefront as the most effective independent political force in Egypt. ... Dr. ElBaradei, with his international prestige, is a difficult critic for Mr. Mubarak’s government to jail, harass or besmirch, as it has many of his predecessors. Dr. ElBaradei eases concerns about Islamists by putting a secular, liberal and familiar face on the opposition... increasingly outspoken in his criticism of the West.

ElBaradei's last stand
ElBaradei's return to Egypt could offer the opportunity for a good alternative to the current leadership.
Alaa Bayoum, http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/01/2011127100660857.ht...
ElBaradei, Nobel Prize for Peace winner and former IAEA chief, is seen as a decent alternative to the current Egyptian regime that is in place [EPA]

1/28/11 Egypt protests: secret US document discloses support for protesters
Here is the secret document sent from the US Embassy in Cairo to Washington disclosing the extent of American support for the protesters behind the Egypt uprising.

USAID pumped tens of millions of dollars into pro-democracy NGOS
(United States Agency for International Development)
"President Mubarak is deeply skeptical of the US role in democracy promotion," reads another cable from the US embassy in Cairo October 9, 2007, also posted Friday by the Norwegian daily.

u.s. internet freedom
Inside the State Department’s Arab Twitter diplomacy
By Josh Rogin, January 28, 2011
The State Department has been working furiously and mostly behind the scenes to cajole and pressure Arab governments to halt clampdowns on communications and social media....Ever since the State Department intervened during protests by the Iranian Green movement in June 2009 [Washington Taps Into a Potent New Force in Diplomacy http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/17/world/middleeast/17media.html?] convincing Twitter to postpone maintenance so opposition protestors could communicate, the U.S. has been ramping up its worldwide effort to set up a network of organizations that could circumvent crackdowns on Internet and cell phone technologies by foreign governments. That effort faced its first two major tests over the last few weeks and the State Department has been working with private companies, non-governmental organizations, and academic institutions to activate this network and put it to use in real time....
Even before the unrest in Tunisia and Egypt, the State Department was working to drastically increase its activities with the internet freedom organizations, many of them using State Department funding provided through a grant program administered by DRL. This month, State announced it would spend another $30 million on this project.
Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor (DRL) Michael Posner said in an interview Friday with The Cable. "I think there will be an increase in contacts on several levels in the coming days and weeks. What we're really talking about here is the ability of people to speak freely, to demonstrate peacefully, to associate and assemble in the public square... human rights that are being restricted,"...

Revolution, Facebook-Style - "22 Jan 2009 ... Can Social Networking Turn Young ... In its official statement, the April 6 movement takes pains to emphasize that it isn't a political party...But the movement has provided a ... what would become weeks of protests, in which thousands of Egyptians of all different political leanings gathered in Egypt's main ..."

US soft power ' sourced news' lies
1/26/11 Facebook: Egypt hasn't blocked us
"We are aware of reports of disruption to service but have not seen any major changes in traffic from Egypt," Facebook spokesman Andrew Noyes told CNET via e-mail today. "You may want to visit Herdict.org, a project of the Berkman Center for Internet & Society at Harvard University [SOROS connected] that offers insight into what users around the world are experiencing in terms of Web accessibility." Herdict.org was also recommended by Twitter as a destination for users seeking answers during several hours on Tuesday in which the company itself declined comment...

Twitter mum on Egypt block
But when CNET contacted Twitter to find out whether they could say if Twitter was blocked in Egypt, no statement was provided--just a link to an evidently new Twitter account, @TwitterGlobalPR, which in turn directed those interested in finding out about an alleged block to consult a site called HerdictWeb...HerdictWeb, run by Harvard University's Berkman Center for Internet and Society under the auspices of digital academic Jonathan Zittrain keeps a crowd-sourced log of reports about which sites are inaccessible in which countries. According to HerdictWeb around 11 a.m. PT on today, seven reports of Twitter inaccessibility in Egypt had been logged....

'democracy activists' exploits working class struggles for pro-US purposes
April 6 Youth Movement in Egypt |New concept of Freedom
Official website 6april.org/english/

Egypt on alert for national strike
Associated Press in Cairo
Egypt ordered its police on alert to foil a nationwide strike planned by pro-democracy activists today. Yesterday's order from the interior ministry came a day after police arrested 28 activists of the April 6 Movement, which called for the protest against government restrictions on political groups...
The April 6 Movement gets its name from the date of a strike by workers at a textile factory last year demanding higher wages. That protest prompted a brutal police crackdown...the activists attempted to channel popular discontent over lack of democracy, corruption and human rights abuses through protests organised by mobile phone messages and the social networking site Facebook...The group says it has online support of 75,000 members. However, their call last year for a nationwide strike on 4 May, President Hosni Mubarak's birthday, went largely unheeded.

Cairo Activists Use Facebook to Rattle Regime
Ahmed Maher using Facebook to try to topple the government of Egypt.
July 23, 2008 http://www.wired.com/techbiz/startups/magazine/16-11/ff_facebookegypt
July 23, 2008. Under the scorching sun on a beach in Alexandria, Egypt, a few dozen political activists snap digital pictures and chatter nervously. Many of them wear matchingwhite T-shirts emblazoned with the image of a fist raised in solidarity and the words "April 6 Youth" splashed across the back. A few of them get to work constructing a giant kite out of bamboo poles and a sheet of plastic painted to look like the Egyptian flag. Most are in their twenties, some younger; one teenage girl wears a teddy bear backpack...Before the group can get the kite aloft, and well before they have a chance to distribute their pro-democracy leaflets... cops shout threats to break up what is, by Western standards, a tiny demonstration....
Ahmed Maher is part of a new generation in the Middle East that, through blogs, YouTube, Flickr, Twitter, and now Facebook, is using virtual reality to combat corrupt and oppressive governments. Their nascent, tech-fired rebellion has triggered a government backlash and captured the world's attention. He speaks softly to fellow activists standing outside an office doorway, but his arrival has an electrifying effect: He's here. Back in March, Maher and a friend launched a Facebook group to promote a protest planned for April 6. It became an Internet phenomenon, quickly attracting more than 70,000 members. The April 6 youth movement... hoping to draw attention to their cause among poor and working class Egyptians enjoying a summer afternoon lounging beneath rented umbrellas while children splash in the Mediterranean. The plan is to sing songs and fly a kite, with the simple goal of meeting and speaking freely with people... "we want peace and freedom not conflict..."
Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak, has been in power for nearly three decades and has governed under emergency rule since 1981. The regime is occasionally rebuked by the US and Europe for its abysmal human-rights record. But because Mubarak is considered a valuable US ally on matters concerning Israel and terrorism, Egypt receives nearly $2 billion in US aid every year, second only to Israel....

u.s. can't afford to leave its ME lynchpin hanging
Without Egypt, Israel will be left with no friends in Mideast
Now, with Mubarak struggling over the survival of his government, Israel is left with two strategic allies in the region: Jordan and the Palestinian Authority.

Israel's El AL whisked some 200 of its nationals, including families of diplomats, out of Egypt on an emergency flight to escape the chaos engulfing the Arab country
Israel's ambassador to Egypt, Yitzhak Levanon and diplomats remain in Cairo.http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israel-airlifts-dozens-of-nationals-out-of-egypt-1.339967

Obama's Risky Path in Egypt
by Leslie H. Gelb
In a move charged with great danger, the Obama team is tilting slightly away from Hosni Mubarak, Egyptian strongman and U.S. critical ally, and toward the demonstrators ...
The stakes are sky high. Egypt is the linchpin to peace in the Middle East. So long as Egypt refrains from warring against Israel, other Arab states cannot take military action by themselves. So long as Cairo remains pro-Western, it serves as an anchor for other such friendly governments. It occupies a central economic position in the region and a vital transportation hub through the Suez Canal. Most certainly, most Arab governments friendly to Washington need to make reforms. But to do so at a moment of weakness, to be seen as bending to mobs, however peaceful and moderate they look now, could open up the floodgates—in Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere.The overriding point is that no knowledgeable diplomat, no secret agent or Harvard professor can speak with confidence about where turmoil will lead in poor and repressed countries like Egypt.

The Egyptian Unrest: A Special Report
One thing that has become clear in the past several hours isa trend that STRATFOR has been following for some time in Egypt, namely, the military’s growing clout in the political affairs of the state. Former air force chief and outgoing civil aviation minister Ahmed Shafiq, who worked under Mubarak’s command in the air force (the most privileged military branch in Egypt), has been appointed prime minister and tasked with forming the new government. Outgoing Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman, who has long stood by Mubarak, is now vice president, a spot that has been vacant for the past 30 years. Meanwhile, Defense Minister Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi (who oversees the Republican Guard) and Egypt’s chief of staff of the armed forces, Lt. Gen. Sami Annan — who returned to Cairo Jan. 29 after a week of intense discussions with senior U.S. officials — are likely managing the political process behind the scenes. More political shuffles are expected, and the military appears willing for now to give Mubarak the time to arrange his political exit. Until Mubarak finally does leave, the unrest in the streets is unlikely to subside, raising the question of just how much more delay from Mubarak the armed forces will tolerate.
The important thing to remember is that the Egyptian military, since the founding of the modern republic in 1952, has been the guarantor of regime stability. Over the past several decades, the military has allowed former military commanders to form civilian institutions to take the lead in matters of political governance but never has relinquished its rights to the state.
Now that the political structure of the state is crumbling, the army must directly shoulder the responsibility of security and contain the unrest on the streets. This will not be easy, especially given the historical animosity between the military and the police in Egypt. For now, the demonstrators view the military as an ally, and therefore (whether consciously or not) are facilitating a de facto military takeover of the state. But one misfire in the demonstrations, and a bloodbath in the streets could quickly foil the military’s plans and give way to a scenario that groups like the MB quickly could exploit. Here again, we question the military’s tolerance for Mubarak as long as he is the source fueling the demonstrations...
The United States, Israel and others will thus be doing what they can behind the scenes to shape the new order in Cairo, but face limitations in trying to preserve a regional stability that has existed since 1978. The fate of Egypt lies in the ability of the military to not only manage the streets and the politicians, but also itself

U.S.Aid to Egypt
A question is always raised in conversations with USAID officials: Why don’t Egyptians notice the role of American aid to their country? ...
The aid does not meet or even take into consideration Egyptians’ most pressing needs, focusing instead on programs valued for strict ideological reasons. Egypt’s most critical needs include targeting aid to help create permanent jobs to enable citizens to earn a living with dignity, as well as providing direct assistance to the most impoverished citizens in the fight against poverty. This hardly enhances USAID’s popularity among the Egyptian people or educated elites. ... leads them to question the value of the limited U.S. aid tied to the peace treaty with Israel, used to improve America’s image in the media and cover up the U.S. bias toward Israel at the expense of Arab rights.
Finally, aid given to Egypt provides the United States with political, strategic, and sometimes economic benefits that far exceed the value of what Egypt has received. The conditions tied to U.S. aid ensure that much of the money returns to the United States, whether in the form of the imported American products, work contracts that go to American companies at less competitive prices than Egypt could have obtained had the bidding been open to international companies, or the salaries of USAID experts. Most important of all, this aid consolidated a gross imbalance in trade relations between Egypt and the U.S....The Egyptian trade deficit with the United States is closely related to this assistance, making Egypt one of the few countries with which the United States has a trade surplus, counter to its overall trend of an $820.6 billion foreign trade deficit in 2008. In addition to spreading poverty at an alarming rate, the so-called economic reforms recommended [e.g. imposed as condition for soft power chains called "aid"] by the US and IMF have caused an unprecedented surge in unemployment and increased income inequality over three decades.

Thoughts on Egypt, Unrest and the Birth of a New Political Age
by Simon Rosenberg 1/29/11, NDN http://ndn.org/
On MSNBC yesterday I publicly disagreed with former Defense Secretary William Cohen about the need to emphasize stability in the Middle East today. Given the changes underway throughout the world, I don't think "stability" as we understood it is really an option any more. Change of this magnitude is inherently unstable, threatening to the old order. The US's goal now should be to help manage the coming changes, the transition of societies across the world, into this new era of the 21st century...
President Obama is particularly well-suited to lead America in this new era of global politics. And the way he and Secretary Clinton have artfully balanced our competing interests these past few days - of sticking with an old geopolitical ally, while standing up for the universal rights for the people of Egypt and the region is a sign of how America has begun to adapt its foreign policy to these new global dynamics. When I watch the images from Egypt I do not see unrest and instability. I see the creative birth of a new political age.. I welcome them. But also realize that with every moment like this, moments of great opportunity and possibility, come dramatic and very real challenges. Managing these transitions, helping more people fashion better and more pluralistic civil societies, is in many ways the great foreign policy project of the next 10-20...
NDN, a leading think tank and advocacy org. in Washington, D.C. Led by veteran strategist and thought-leader Simon Rosenberg NDN Affiliates: New Policy Institute, New Politics Institute

What Should Obama Say About Egypt?
...protests against the government, likely organized by a group of middle class youth who call themselves the April 6 Movement, gather steam...
In Tunisia it was easy enough for the U.S. government to praise the democratic aspirations and call for the ouster of the government. In Egypt, it's harder. But it's even more important. America's history of supporting repressive dictatorships in the Arab world has caused an awful lot of ill will toward the U.S. among ordinary citizens of those countries. Looking toward a democratic Egypt, the U.S. government should welcome the prospect, and rather than supporting Mubarak to the end, the Obama Administration should reach out to Mohamed el-Baradei, the April 6 Movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, and other civil society leaders, and encourage their leadership in building a democratic Egypt. Democracy in Egypt is not only right, it's seeming inevitable, and the United States ought not be on the wrong side of it. Global Mobile Sam DuPont, http://ndn.org/blog/2011/01/what-should-obama-say-about-egypt

accessible to members only
April 6 Movement conference criticizes NDP, calls for opposition unity
"29 Dec 2010 ... Opposition leaders and rights activists encouraged youths to fight for change, citing the "failure" of the ruling National Democratic Party ..."

The two major humanitarian organizations Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch criticized the Egyptian government for taking violent actions against peaceful protestors.... members of “April 6″ formed in 2008 to protest against the increasing of costs for the standard of living. Recently April 6 formed a friendly relationship with Mohamed ElBaradei’s new political party that’s set to go against the current President Hosni Mubarak in the 2011 Egyptian elections.

Editorial: The U.S. needs to break with Mubarak now
...To question, as Mr. Biden did, whether the protesters' demands are "legitimate" is particularly obtuse. In fact, the leaders of the uprising, including former U.N. nuclear official Mohamed ElBaradei, have set forward a moderate and democratic platform...Their platform could transform Egypt, and the Middle East, for the better. But the precondition for change is Mr. Mubarak's departure...Rather than calling on an intransigent ruler to implement "reforms," the administration should be attempting to prepare for the peaceful implementation of the opposition platform. It should be reaching out to Mr. ElBaradei and other mainstream opposition leaders. And it should be telling the Egyptian army, with no qualification, violent suppression of the uprising will rupture its relationship with the United States....
Leslie H. Gelb, former NYT columnist and senior government official, author of Power Rules: How Common Sense Can Rescue American Foreign Policy is president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Egypt protests show George W. Bush was right about freedom in the Arab world
by Elliott Abrams, CFR, Sr. Fellow for Middle East Studies
The Bush Doctrine, in effect, is a combination of these two things: military preemption on the one side and democracy promotion on the other....

Remarks by President George W. Bush at the 20th Anniversary of the National Endowment for Democracy
Our commitment to democracy is also tested in the Middle East, which is my focus today, and must be a focus of American policy for decades to come. In many nations of the Middle East -- countries of great strategic importance -- democracy has not yet taken root. And the questions arise: Are the peoples of the Middle East somehow beyond the reach of liberty?...
Securing democracy in Iraq is the work of many hands. American and coalition forces are sacrificing for the peace of Iraq and for the security of free nations. Aid workers from many countries are facing danger to help the Iraqi people. The National Endowment for Democracy is promoting women's rights, and training Iraqi journalists, and teaching the skills of political participation. Iraqis, themselves -- police and borders guards and local officials -- are joining in the work and they are sharing in the sacrifice. This is a massive and difficult undertaking -- it is worth our effort, it is worth our sacrifice, because we know the stakes. The failure of Iraqi democracy would embolden terrorists around the world, increase dangers to the American people, and extinguish the hopes of millions in the region. Iraqi democracy will succeed -- and that success will send forth the news, from Damascus to Teheran -- that freedom can be the future of every nation.The establishment of a free Iraq at the heart of the Middle East will be a watershed event in the global democratic revolution. Therefore, the United States has adopted a new policy, a forward strategy of freedom in the Middle East....As in Europe, as in Asia, as in every region of the world, the advance of freedom leads to peace...

Over1,500,000 Iraqis Slaughtered by U.S. liberation of Iraq

...June of 2005 Condoleezza Rice goes to Egypt and gives this quite astonishing address..."For 60 years, the United States has supported order at the expense of liberty, and we have gotten neither. Our politics in the Middle East have failed. Now we realize that that was a mistake. We're not going to do that again. We are going to support the forces of democracy in Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East."... Egypt, a country where the American administration is despised; nevertheless there is a tremendous response to this. People are very, very hopeful the Americans are going to push and Mubarak is going to have to do what Bush wants .... Jim Traub, CFR

Egypt’s Military Seen as Pivotal in Next Step
“Will the people tolerate another 60 years of direct military rule?”
The Egyptian military, the world’s 10th largest, is powerful, popular and largely opaque.The military carried out the 1952 coup... all four presidents since have been military generals.
Mr. Mubarak, who led the Air Force before... President Anwar el-Sadat appointed him vice president in 1975, worked hard to keep the army out of overt politics and under his control...
The current defense minister, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi...The tipping point could come, analysts believe, if the military is ordered to fire on demonstrators in any large numbers. No one thinks a Mubarak loyalist like General Tantawi would challenge Mr. Mubarak....but at some point his top subordinates might consider it. Senior members of the general staff were in Washington when the violence erupted and hurried home...

Israeli Debkafile
27 Jan. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak sent his defense minister Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi in secret to Washington to ask US backing for his embattled regime against the street protest movement which gained in violence on its second day, Jan. 26.  DEBKAfile's Washington sources report that in secret meetings, Tantawi warned top US officials that without a crackdown on the protesters, the regime was doomed. The Egyptian army is on emergency standby.Tantawi also warned that the radical Muslim Brotherhood, which has stood aside from the opposition protests, was biding its time for the right moment to step in and take over. He asked the Obama administration for an urgent airlift of advanced riot control equipment.
Slogans of "US out" and "Death to the US" have begun to appear on anti-Mubarak placards.

Example of U.S. soft power seduction: descriptive demagogy whitewashes U.S. political-economic-military dominance run by fascist proxies as capitalist 'marginalization' and 'distribution', using faux 'marxist' opposition' cover to back U.S. maneuvers to forestall revolutionary working class anti-imperialist-zionist movements
The 'bin Laden' of marginalisation
The real terror eating away at the Arab world is socio-economic marginalisation.
Larbi Sadiki
...Whose terror? The gurus of so-called 'radicalisation' who have turned Islam into a security issue have fixed the debate, making bin Laden a timeless, single and permanent pathology of all things Muslim.It is no exaggeration to claim that since 9/11 so-called radicalisation has replaced new Orientalism as the prism through which Western security apparatuses view Middle Eastern youth and societies. Guantanamo Bay, profiling, extraordinary renditions, among others, are only the tip of the iceberg.The policing, equipment, funding, expertise and anti-terror philosophy being fed to the likes of Algeria, Libya and Morocco are geared towards fighting the 'bearded, radical salafis' whose prophet is Osama bin Laden. But, the tangible bin Ladens bracing suicide in its entirety have emerged from the ranks of the educated middle classes whose prophet is Adam Smith. Al-Qaeda, literally "the base", may today be the swelling armies of marginals in the Middle East, not the 'salafis'.
It is not the Quran or Sayyid Qutb - who is in absentia charged with perpetrating 9/11 despite being dead since 1966 - Western security experts should worry about. They should perhaps purchase Das Kapital and bond with Karl Marx to get a reality check, a rethink, a dose of sobriety in a post-9/11 world...From Tunisia and Algeria in the Maghreb to Jordan and Egypt in the Arab east, the real terror that eats at self-worth, sabotages community and communal rites of passage, including marriage, is the terror of socio-economic marginalisation....
For Tunisia, Algeria, Jordan and Egypt, the impoverished Arab states, in need of the liquidity of Euro-American and International Misery Fund aid, infitah (open-door policy) was the only blueprint of forward economic management. Within its bosom are bred greed, land grab, corruption, monopoly and the new entrepreneurial classes who exchange loyalty and patronage with the political masters as well as the banknotes and concessions with which both fund flash lifestyles. Thus the map of distribution was gerrymandered at the expense of the have-nots who are placated with insufficient micro credits or ill-managed national development funds. The crumbs - whatever subsidies are allowed by the new economic order built on the pillars of privatisation, the absence of social safety nets and economic protectionism - delay disaffection but never eliminate it. Below the surface the pent-up anger of the marginals simmers...
The absence of a critical mass that produces a tipping-point dynamic means that regimes know how to buy time, co-opt and fund themselves out of trouble when pushed. Genuine democratic bargains do not ensue. The states have not invested in social and political capital. Oppositions and dissidents have not yet learned how to infiltrate governments and build strong political identities and power bases. This is one reason why the protests that produced 'Velvet revolutions' elsewhere seem to be absent in the Arab world....
Larbi Sadiki is a senior lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, and author of Arab Democratisation: Elections without Democracy (Oxford University Press, 2009) and The Search for Arab Democracy: Discourses and Counter-Discourses