7/3/ SCAF Overthrows Morsi : Finance Capital's Plans Not Fit for the 'News',

7/3/13 US backed Egyptian Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) overthrows Morsi as planned

U.S. Marines Ready for Egyptian Chaos
Stars and Stripes reports some 500 Marines with the Special-Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force Crisis Response Team have been moved from Moron, Spain to Sigonella, Italy to be closer to Egypt .Marines were told to be ready to be airborne in 60 minutes after deployment orders CNN reported last week. Pentagon spokesman Army Col. Steve Warren, wouldn't confirm.

US finance capital speaks: 'arab spring' requirements in MENA to secure US global domination
Egypt Needs Washington’s Help Now More than Ever
VOA INSIGHT Middle East Voices: http://middleeastvoices.voanews.com/2013/06/insight-egypt-needs-washingt...
...President Mohamed Morsi is not interested in hearing mandates from the United States, but may find it can help broker a political deal he will need for his presidency to endure... U.S. strategic interests and political values are interwoven with Egypt’s political trajectory. In addition to extensive U.S.-Egyptian military and strategic ties, Egypt’s diplomacy on the issues of Palestine, Syria, Libya, and Iran can go a long way in support of key U.S. interests. Most importantly in the long run, however, is the broader demonstration effect the Egyptian regime transition will have on other Arab countries experimenting with political transitions over the course of the decade.

Arab Spring Needs a Mini-Marshall Plan
1/13/13 Bloomberg Editors, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-13/arab-spring-needs-a-mini-marsha...
Building Arab democracies with open economies is proving much harder than was, perhaps naively, anticipated. Yet the Arab Spring has not failed. Democracy in the Middle East need not lead to the spread of failed states and radical Islam, and it is not too late to respond. What’s needed is a bigger and more focused effort...History offers a telling comparison. It was also two years after the end of World War II when George C. Marshall said in a speech at Harvard University “the rehabilitation of the economic structure of Europe quite evidently will require a much longer time and greater effort than had been foreseen.” He proposed what became known as the 1948 Marshall Plan...Marshall understood the need to buttress Western Europe in the face of the threat posed by the Soviet Union. Events today in Syria and Mali -- as well as the standoff between the U.S. and Iran, and between Israel and the Palestinians -- demonstrate a similar imperative to stabilize North Africa....A lot of focus to date has rightly been on supporting civil society and NGOs. These, too, should be tackled in a more regional context. In December, the German Marshall Fund started a new project to do just that... What’s required in North Africa is a fraction of the commitments, in both resources and energy, made through the Marshall Plan after1947 and after 1989, to integrate the ex-communist bloc... North Africa is not Europe, big risks and hurdles are involved -- just as they were in negotiating Russia’s acquiescence to the breakup of the Soviet empire. Yet creating successful, stable democracies in North Africa anchored firmly in the modern global economy is surely worth a bigger effort than we have made collectively until now.

Egypt’s Transition Needs Some Quiet U.S. Help
1/24/13 Bloomberg Editors, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-24/egypt-s-transition-needs-some-q...
... Egypt needs a lot of external financing -- an estimated $22 billion this year alone -- just to stay afloat and can be frustratingly hard to help. When the U.S. gave more than $60 million for NGO democracy promotion after the 2011 revolution, the Egyptian response was to prosecute the recipients.... The U.S. need not add significantly to the roughly $2 billion already committed...and the $1.3 billion in military aid it provides annually to persuade Egypt to keep the peace with Israel ...everything is on hold until parliamentary elections in the spring [when the] government be expected to sign up for the essential $4.8 billion International Monetary Fund program that would unlock money from donors and investors... As former Finance Minister Samir Radwan writes on Bloomberg View, the IMF program would provide the meaningful economic policy that Egypt lacks. A recent Atlantic Council paper describes how nobody knows if the next government will take the IMF route or choose a populist path that won’t require it to raise taxes, privatize state assets or cut the roughly 10 percent of gross domestic product the government spends on subsidies. That path would be disastrous for Egypt and the region. To get back on track, the new government will have to accept the IMF deal and be less domineering. Meanwhile, the secular opposition will have to give up its efforts to bring down the elected Islamist government using politicized courts, instead build up party organizations that win elections..
The U.S. is the only country that can coordinate Egypt’s donor countries -- Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the European Union -- within a strong transition framework....also in a unique position to leverage IMF and World Bank to increase loans to Egypt when the time comes.... the U.S.has understandably soft-pedaled the promotion of stronger democracy institutions since the arrest of U.S. NGO personnel. A new Egyptian nonprofits law will probably follow the elections clearing the way for this to change...

Economic Dimensions of the Arab Spring
May 2013 https://www.fpri.org/articles/2013/05/economic-dimensions-arab-spring
Riad al Khouri, a Jordanian economist is principal of DEA Inc, Washington DC and member of the Lebanese Economic Association. His recent activities have included membership in 2012 of the Advisory Committee for the drafting of the Deauville Partnership Trade and Foreign Direct Investment Report.
...Egypt clearly needs help, but is unable to establish enough stability to allow financial support to have a proper impact. As a result, a sort of stalemate between Egypt and its Western or international benefactors persists. One explanation behind Egypt’s inability to proceed with financing is due to its current government’s obstinacy...the IMF offered to lend Egypt USD4.8 billion, but President Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood-led government balked at the conditions, which include slashing subsidies for food and fuel. Successive rounds of talks between Egypt and the IMF proved fruitless, and there is little reason to believe Egypt will agree to an assistance package before parliamentary elections expected this autumn.
Meanwhile, the U.S. insists its aid money be released to Egypt as pledged provided an agreement is reached concerning the IMF credit, which will also ensure aid packages from institutions such as the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the African Development Bank, among others. Egypt is thus caught in a vicious circle of lack of financial stability fueling uncertainty, which in turn exacerbates the country’s finances and so on according to the current U.S. ambassador to Egypt, Anne Patterson...In this situation, Egypt has relied more on regional and other non-Western financing... often heavily tied to strategic diplomatic, and political conditions, and less to implementing policies required at the socio-economic level. It remains to be seen how Egypt’s domestic policies and stability could be affected by loans and aid being offered by non-Western powers, within or outside the region...
Arabs do not accept the use of political influence as they used to. Extended family-owned interests in sectors such as telecoms, news media, and banking, which had crowded out potential competitors, are now being dismantled, creating new opportunities; and banks have become freer to lend without political interference. In this context, the private sector, which was once stifled by government, will grow as change brings competition. Yet, such potential future gains are obscured by heavy present costs, though ultimately the Arab Spring will unlock opportunities for private companies, overturning entrenched interests and opening the field for new entrants. With the price of crude remaining high, the region’s oil-rich states will continue doing well in the short-term. Meanwhile, the economic situation in the non-oil rich Arab countries will stay poor, though in the longer run their situations will improve and eventually become better than before the Arab Spring. Yet a modicum of stability must exist for fresh financing to be useful to Cairo, otherwise the result would be augmented debt with little prospect of repayment. For other Arab states, such as Lebanon, major reform, not significant aid, is the key to long-term sustainability, regardless of the situation elsewhere in the region.
also : 6/6/13 Introducing FPRI's Project on Democratic Transitions, https://www.fpri.org/news/2013/06/introducing-fpris-project-democratic-t...

"the military remains the ultimate source of power in the country"
Egypt's Atypical Military Coup
7/3/13 Analysis http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/egypts-atypical-military-coup
Stratfor a geopolitical intelligence firm provides strategic analysis and forecasting to individuals and organizations around the world placing global events in a geopolitical framework, to help customers anticipate opportunities and better understand international developments.
Considering the Egyptian army is forcibly removing a democratically elected president...the military intervention is indeed a coup. However, it differs from other coups in that direct military rule will not be imposed. There is considerable public support for Morsi's removal, so the provisional authority that will replace him likely will be a broad-based entity that includes representatives of the nation's main political stakeholders...Herein lies the problem of the Egyptian military...since the founding of the modern republic in 1952. For most of its history, especially since the end of the 1967 war, Egypt's military has never directly governed the country... it ruled from behind the scenes, except for the year when the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces openly ruled. Until the fall of Mubarak, this was achieved by means of single-party rule where the now-disbanded National Democratic Party administered at the behest of the military..As the single largest, most coherent political force in the country, Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood.. it appeared the military had found a replacement of sorts for the National Democratic Party -- ideological differences notwithstanding... the military needed a government that could manage the political economy of the country such that the state of unrest could remain limited.Morsi's government failed to do that...As a result, the army is again without a civilian partner. There are no alternatives to the Muslim Brotherhood because the opposition is a large protest movement without any coherent core. However the impetus for these protests was the liberal and secular opposition, who for the first time demonstrated an ability to establish a united front. It is unclear whether the opposition will coalesce and whether Tamarod's political wing, June 30 Front, represents a political alternative to the Brotherhood's established social networks in the country. Mohammed ElBaradei's appointment as the negotiator for much of the opposition could be a first step toward a political entity besides the Brotherhood that could wield civilian power...
Morsi's downfall shows that the decades-long strategy of SCAF ruling without governing is proving increasingly difficult.. imposing military rule would only aggravate tensions....it shows the country needs a coalition government... extremely difficult to create... the military remains the ultimate source of power in the country

recent deja vu

1/28/11 Egypt protests: America's secret backing for leaders behind uprising
The American government secretly backed leading figures behind the Egyptian uprising who have been planning “regime change” for the past three years
The American Embassy in Cairo helped a young dissident attend a US-sponsored summit for activists in New York, while working to keep his identity secret from Egyptian state police.
On his return to Cairo in December 2008, the activist told US diplomats that an alliance of opposition groups had drawn up a plan to overthrow President Hosni Mubarak and install a democratic government in 2011. He has already been arrested by Egyptian security in connection with the demonstrations - his identity is being protected by The Daily Telegraph....
In a secret diplomatic dispatch, sent on December 30 2008, Margaret Scobey, the US Ambassador to Cairo, recorded that opposition groups had allegedly drawn up secret plans for “regime change” to take place before elections, scheduled for September this year. The memo, which Ambassador Scobey sent to the US Secretary of State in Washington DC, was marked “confidential” and headed: “April 6 activist on his US visit and regime change in Egypt.” It said the activist claimed “several opposition forces” had “agreed to support an unwritten plan for a transition to a parliamentary democracy, involving a weakened presidency and an empowered prime minister and parliament, before the scheduled 2011 presidential elections”. The embassy’s source said the plan was “so sensitive it cannot be written down”.
The secret document...

12/30/2028 TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, EG
REF: A. CAIRO 2462 B. CAIRO 2454 C. CAIRO 2431 Classified By: ECPO A/Mincouns
Catherine Hill-Herndon for reason 1.4 (d ). 1. (C) Summary and comment: On December 23, April 6 activist xxxxxxxxxxxx expressed satisfaction with participation in the December 3-5 \"Alliance of Youth Movements Summit,\" and with subsequent meetings with USG officials, on Capitol Hill, and with think tanks....
2. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx expressed satisfaction with the December 3-5 \"Alliance of Youth Movements Summit\" in New York, noting that he was able to meet activists from other countries and outline his movement's goals for democratic change in Egypt..
C) xxxxxxxxxxxx claimed several opposition forces -- including the Wafd, Nasserite, Karama and Tagammu parties, and the Muslim Brotherhood, Kifaya, and Revolutionary Socialist movements -- have agreed to support an unwritten plan for a transition to a parliamentary democracy, involving a weakened presidency and an empowered prime minister and parliament, before the scheduled 2011 presidential elections (ref C). According to xxxxxxxxxxxx, the opposition is interested in receiving support from the army and the police for a transitional government prior to the 2011 elections. xxxxxxxxxxxx asserted that this plan is so sensitive it cannot be written down. (Comment: We have no information to corroborate that these parties and movements have agreed to the unrealistic plan xxxxxxxxxxxx outlined. Per ref C, xxxxxxxxxxxx previously told us that this plan was publicly available on the internet. End comment.)....
8. (C) Comment: xxxxxxxxxxxx offered no roadmap of concrete steps toward April 6's highly unrealistic goal of replacing the current regime with a parliamentary democracy prior to the 2011 presidential elections. Most opposition parties and independent NGOs work toward achieving tangible, incremental reform within the current political context, even if they may be pessimistic about their chances of success. xxxxxxxxxxxx wholesale rejection of such an approach places him outside this mainstream of opposition politicians and activists.

11/11/2008 US State Department Chooses April 6th Movement To Take Part In Anti-Extremism Conference

May 8, 2008 Reference ID Created Classification Origin
08CAIRO941 2008-05-07 08:22 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Cairo
REF: A. 2007 CAIRO 2206
¶ B. 2007 CAIRO 2601
¶ C. 2007 CAIRO 3001
¶ D. STATE 44903
¶ E. CAIRO 902

Classified By: DCM Stuart Jones, for reason 1.4 (d).

¶ 1. (U) Embassy Cairo continues to actively support and promote the President's Freedom Agenda. We are in close
contact with the wide range of Egypt's political oppositionists, democracy and human rights activists, and journalists from independent and opposition newspapers, as well as bloggers who promote democracy and human rights. We regularly engage with a variety of GOE officials, including at the most senior-levels, to discuss both broad policy concerns and specific democracy and human rights cases. We regularly utilize public speaking opportunities and media outreach (including ambassadorial appearances on Egyptian satellite TV shows, reaching millions of Egyptians) to promote democratic ideals and reform. MEPI and USAID's Democracy and Governance programs constitute critical components of our mission's efforts. A detailed discussion
of our democracy strategy programming was provided in ref C.
The bimonthly meeting of the Institutions of Democracy Working Group (IDWG), chaired by the DCM, coordinates democracy policy and programs among USAID and Embassy Economic --
Political and Public Affairs sections. ¶ 2. (C) Since our last comprehensive report on support for the Freedom Agenda (ref A), the Ambassador held the following meetings with democracy and human rights activists:

Revolution, Facebook-Style ... Can Social Networking Turn Young ... the official April 6 movement emphasizes that it isn't a political party...But the movement has provided a what would become weeks of protests, in which thousands of Egyptians of all different political leanings gathered in Egypt's main ..."
1/25/09 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/25/magazine/25bloggers-t.html

Egypt’s April 6 movement gets behind ElBaradei
3/20/10 http://bikyamasr.com/wordpress/?p=10163
Among those present were Ahmed Maher, Mohamed Adel and other activists and members of the 6 April Youth Movement part of a larger group supporting ElBaradei’s National Association for Change currently collecting signatures on a statement that affirms their support for ElBaradei’s changes.

ElBaradei's last stand
ElBaradei's return to Egypt could offer the opportunity for a good alternative to the current leadership.
1/27/11 Alaa Bayoum, http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/01/2011127100660857.ht...
ElBaradei, Nobel Prize for Peace winner and former IAEA chief, is seen as a decent alternative to the current Egyptian regime that is in place [EPA]

Egypt protests: secret US document discloses support for protesters
1/28/11 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/828...
Here is the secret document sent from the US Embassy in Cairo to Washington disclosing the extent of American support for the protesters behind the Egypt uprising.

USAID pumped tens of millions of dollars into pro-democracy NGOS
(United States Agency for International Development)
"President Mubarak is deeply skeptical of US role in democracy promotion," cable from the US embassy in Cairo October 9, 2007, posted Friday by the Norwegian daily.

Egypt's Army Signals Steps to Take Power
Breaking News Alert The New York Times
2/11/11 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/11/world/middleeast/11egypt.html
Egypt's armed forces said on Thursday that they were taking "necessary measures to protect the nation and support the legitimate demands of the people," a signal that the militaryintends to take a commanding role in governing the country There was no immediate confirmation that the army intended to replace the government named by President Hosni Mubarak, but protesters in Cairo roared approval at the news that the military was moving to supplant the government they have steadfastly opposed Jubilant chants of "The Army and the people in one hand!" could be heard on broadcasts from Tahrir Square. There was no information about what role Mr. Mubarak or hi new vice president, *Omar Suleiman, would play in a military government. The announcement came on the 17th day of unrest in Egypt...

Mubarak Refuses to Step Down Stoking Revolt's Fury and Resolve
Breaking News Alert The New York Times
2/10/11 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/11/world/middleeast/11egypt.html

u.s. internet freedom
Inside the State Department’s Arab Twitter diplomacy
1/28/11 Josh Rogin, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/28/inside_the_state_depa...?
The State Department has been working furiously and mostly behind the scenes to cajole and pressure Arab governments to halt clampdowns on communications and social media....Ever since the State Department intervened during protests by the Iranian Green movement in June 2009 [Washington Taps Into a Potent New Force in Diplomacy http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/17/world/middleeast/17media.html?] convincing Twitter to postpone maintenance so opposition protestors could communicate, the U.S. has been ramping up its worldwide effort to set up a network of organizations that could circumvent crackdowns on Internet and cell phone technologies by foreign governments. That effort faced its first two major tests over the last few weeks and the State Department has been working with private companies, non-governmental organizations, and academic institutions to activate this network and put it to use in real time.... Even before the unrest in Tunisia and Egypt, the State Department was working to drastically increase its activities with the internet freedom organizations, many of them using State Department funding provided through a grant program administered by DRL. This month, State announced it would spend another $30 million on this project. Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor (DRL) Michael Posner said in an interview Friday with The Cable. "I think there will be an increase in contacts on several levels in the coming days and weeks. What we're really talking about here is the ability of people to speak freely, to demonstrate peacefully, to associate and assemble in the public square... human rights that are being restricted,"...

Secretary Clinton Extends US Support to Middle East Activists
5/24/12 http://www.voanews.com/content/secretary_clinton_extends_us_support_midd....
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton welcomed Middle East democracy activists to the State Department ...activists from across the Middle East and North Africa, including Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen, all undergoing political transitions in the wake of anti-government uprisings. Others came from Algeria, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, the Palestinian territories and Qatar. Many took part in the State Department's civil society dialogue earlier this month...Clinton, a strong advocate for supporting rights in the region, is especially concerned with events in Syria. In a speech before the UN Security Council in March, she said the Syrian people "deserve the same opportunity to shape their future that the Tunisians, Egyptians, Libyans and Yemenis now enjoy."

US Defense Secretary Panetta “looks forward” to transition in Egypt
6/16/12 http://www.bikyamasr.com/69954/us-defense-secretary-panetta-looks-forwar...
CAIRO: US Secretary of Defense Panetta spoke with Hussein Tantawi, Egypt’s military chief and ruler of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) to discuss Egypt’s political transition. The two men “agreed on the importance of the US-Egyptian strategic relationship,” while Panetta underscored “the need to ensure a full and peaceful transition to democracy..

8/7/12 Sinai Attack Tests New Egyptian President’s Relationship With Israel
8/7/12 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/07/world/middleeast/sinai-attack-a-test-f...
With the relationship between Egypt’s new Islamist leader and Israel still in fragile infancy, the terrorist attack on the border the two countries share with Gaza presented a critical opportunity — and a crucial test..“Now it is obvious also to him there is a real convergence of interests here, this may get us closer to him,” Danny Ayalon, Israel’s deputy foreign minister, said of Mr. Morsi.

Egypt democracy leader ElBaradei says no dialogue until Islamist president drops new powers
11/23/12 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/worst-egypt-violence-sin...
ElBaradei, Nobel Peace laureate for his work as U.N. nuclear watchdog, formed a “National Salvation Front” with other liberal and secular leaders, to unify the opposition against Morsi.

Anti-Morsi Protests Rock Egypt
Apr 06, 2013 http://photos.denverpost.com/2013/04/06/photos-anti-morsi-protests-rock-...
Anti-Morsi members of the 6th of April movement rally in Cairo...call for a ‘Day of Rage’ to protest arrest of activists and stifling of free expression. The movement was one of the key players in the uprising that toppled former President Hosni Mubarak. Protesters chant anti-Morsi and anti-Muslim Brotherhood slogans, lighting flares in front of the High Court. Police fired tear gas to prevent protesters trying to storm the court and prosecutor-general's office in central Cairo. When protesters hurled fireworks and rocks at the court and prosecutor general's office, and tried to break down the main gate, police fired tear gas from upstairs windows, witnesses said. REUTERS

6/24/13 Some 500 people marched through Cairo city center, chanting "The people want to topple the regime" on the fifth anniversary of the founding of the opposition April 6 youth movement that helped depose Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak....

for more: jan. 11, 2011 http://www.burbankdigest.com/node/333