2/10 US $5 Billion to Ukraine, 'Awaits Russia's Next Move' Post Sochi

"The three great imperatives of geopolitical strategy are to prevent collusion and maintain security dependence among the vassals, to keep tributaries pliant, and to keep the barbarians from coming together."
Zbigniew Brzezinski, 1997 The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy And Its Geostrategic Imperatives

F*** the EU: Leaked tape of Sr. US Diplomats Conversation Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland US Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt
US State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki called the leak "a new low in Russian tradecraft" and said "I didn't say it was inauthentic" when asked to confirm if the tape was legitimate.

"Sowing discord among Western allies is a tactical maneuver, straight out of the Soviet playbook"
Awaiting Russia’s Next Move in Ukraine
2/10/14 Celestine Bohlen, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/11/world/europe/awaiting-russias-next-mov...
Western diplomats worry over possibility of more aggressive moves by Russia once the Sochi Games are over. Sowing discord among Western allies is a tactical maneuver, straight out of the Soviet playbook. What worries Western diplomats is the possibility of more aggressive moves by Russia once the Sochi Games are over... All agree the stakes are high in what is sounding more and more like an eerie replay of the Cold War. A Russian official accused the US of “crudely interfering” in Ukrainian politics, while a US diplomat in a taped conversation, warned that the Russians would surely “be working behind the scenes to torpedo” any agreement brokered in Kiev by the West. When the Olympics end, the competition over the future of Ukraine will still be going on. The question is how leaders in Russia and the West choose to play it out.

Nuland: US spent $5 Billion In Ukraine
December 13, 2013 Speech by Victoria Nuland - Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasian Affairs, National Press Club
US-Ukraine Foundation Foundation
International Business Conference, sponsored by Chevron. Ukraine-in-Washington lobby
US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasian Affairs, Victoria Nuland said: "Since the declaration of Ukrainian independence in 1991, the United States supported the Ukrainians in the development of democratic institutions and skills in promoting civil society and a good form of government - all that is necessary to achieve the objectives of Ukraine's European. We have invested more than 5 billion dollars to help Ukraine to achieve these and other goals." Nuland said the United States will continue to "promote Ukraine to the future it deserves."

Ukraine: Freedom House, Nations in Transition
Source: The data above are drawn from The World Bank, World Development Indicators 2013.

OPORA | EU Ukraine
Civil Network NGO OPORA ... supported by international funds and donor structures including: USAID, NDI, NED

American Councils Organization
* $86 million dollar budget for fiscal year 2013-2014, funded by
* U.S. government, foreign governments, private foundations, global development organizations, World Bank, International Renaissance Foundation...

International Renaissance Foundation | Open Society Foundations
The International Renaissance Foundation mission is to foster an open, participatory, pluralist society based on democratic values in Ukraine.

Futures of Democracy: Research and Policy Perspectives
12/13/13 http://spp.ceu.hu/sites/spp.ceu.hu/files/general/futuresofdemocracy.pdf
[Soros] Open Society Foundations... and the School of Public Policy, Central European University ... Caucasus, Azerbaijan,. Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine
In the words of its founder, George Soros, the School of Public Policy at Central European University, is a “new kind of global institution dealing with global problems

Migration and Integration in Europe
The Bertelsmann Stiftung has been drafting proposals for a universal immigration law for Europe since 1992. In order to bring new momentum to the integration agenda in Germany and Europe, the Bertelsmann Stiftung joined with the Migration Policy Institute in Washington DC to found the Transatlantic Council on Migration, in developing strategic proposals for innovative migration and integration policies....The Council's activities are also supported by other foundations and national governments including the Carnegie Corporation, Rockefeller Foundation, Ford Foundation and Hellenic Migration Policy Institute, the governments of Norway and the Netherlands.

Perspectives on Ukrainian Protests
1/28/14 Stratfor Geopolitical Intelligence http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/perspectives-ukrainian-protest
... Ukraine is central to Russia's defensibility...[its] very existence and independence can be a source of strategic vulnerability for Russia. The two countries share a long border, Moscow is located only some 480 kilometers (about 300 miles) from Ukrainian territory -- a stretch of land that is flat, easily traversed and thus difficult to defend. If some power were to block the Ukraine-Kazakh gap, Russia would be cut off from the Caucasus, its defensible southern border. Moreover, Ukraine is home to two critical ports, Odessa and Sevastopol, even more important to Russia than the port of Novorossiysk. Losing commercial and military access to those ports would completely undermine Russia's influence in the Black Sea and cut off its access to the Mediterranean. Russia's only remaining ports would be blocked by the Greenland-Iceland---U.K. gap to the west, by ice to the northeast, by Denmark on the Baltic Sea, and by Japan in the east...
From the Russian point of view, therefore, tighter Ukrainian--EU integration represents a potentially mortal threat to Russian national security. After the Orange Revolution brought a pro-West administration to power in the mid-2000s, Putin has alleged that NGOs fomenting unrest are U.S. State Department, CIA and MI6 fronts. Whether true or not, Putin believed the course in which Ukraine was heading would be disastrous for Russia...At the time of the 2008 Russo-Georgian war...through intervention in Georgia, Moscow succeeded in steering Ukraine away from NATO.. Today, the strategic threat to Russia is no less dire than it was 10 years ago, at least in minds of the Russians, who would prefer a neutral if not a pro-Russia Ukraine....
Putin's strategy toward Ukraine, and most of the former Soviet Union, entails less direct influence. He is not interested in governing Ukraine...the Ukrainian regime is free to be as liberal and democratic as it wants But EU integration is seen as clear provocation...openly supporting Yanukovich opponents...interfering in the internal affairs of another country -- detrimental to Russian national interests...The Russians have remained relatively calm -- and quiet -- throughout Ukrainian protests. They understood their power in Ukraine rests on more than simply one man or party, so they allowed the crisis to stew. Given Russia's current strategy in Ukraine, the Russians didn't need to act, at least not publicly. Any government in Ukraine would face the same constraints as Yanukovich: little real hope of EU inclusion, a dependence on Moscow for energy and an integrated economy with Russia. Certainly, the Russians didn't want a confrontation just before Sochi...

stinking 'riptide' of crimes on the ground + strategic communications/public diplomacy
Ukraine leader to Sochi as Kremlin warns action against "coup"
Caught in a rip-tide of competing enticements and threats from Russia and the West...before heading for Sochi, Ukraine's embattled President Vikto Yanukovich met senior U.S. envoy Victoria Nuland... flew to Soch Thursday to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin before he opens the Winter Olympics Friday...senior Kremin Sergei Glazyev, in a typically confrontational newspaper interview urged Yanukovich to stamp out the street standoff he called a U.S. financed and armed coup attempt...accused Nuland of "blackmail" by privately warning wealthy Russian oligarchs backing Yanukovich they risked their foreign assets being seized if they did not hand power to the opposition. U.S. officials did not respond directly to Glazyev's remarks, which included an allegation of U.S. agents giving "$20 million a week" to "opposition and rebels" and "training fighters within U.S. Embassy grounds " armed by Washington. U.S. officials would also not discuss a YouTube recording purporting to be a phone call between Nuland and the U.S. ambassador posted anonymously, with Russian subtitles in Russian, clearly intended to portray opposition leaders as "puppets" of the U.S. discussing efforts to help Yanukovich's opponents into power....the recording included what sounded like Nuland making a crude dismissive remark about the EU and the ambassador warning that the Russians would work "behind the scenes" to "torpedo" an opposition-led government. EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who met Yanukovich and opposition leaders in Kiev on Wednesday, said the EU would not comment on "leaked alleged" conversation....

"new approaches to US global outreach"
2/5/14 AP: US warns of explosives in toothpaste ...U.S. “isn’t aware of a specific threat to the homeland at this time."
U.S. issues toothpaste tube bombs terror warning...Airlines warned about possible toothpaste tube bombs
CNN poll of 1000: 57% of Americans think terror attack likely at Sochi Games

"New Approaches to U.S. Global Outreach," Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communications Conference, George Washington University, 5 October 2009.
Mapping Smart Power in Multi-stakeholder Public Diplomacy / Strategic Communication [PD and SC]
Bruce Gregory http://ipdgc.gwu.edu/%7Eipdgc/events/index.cfm https://www.gwu.edu/~ipdgc/assets/docs/mapping_smartpower_gregory.pdf
Bruce Gregory teaches public diplomacy and strategic communication at Georgetown University, George Washington University, and the U.S. Naval War College
Smart power, a term Harvard's Joseph Nye invented in 2003 to counter the misperception that soft power alone is sufficient in foreign policy...we need "smart strategies that combine the tools of hard and soft power." Nye had been writing for years about combining coercion, persuasion, and attraction. The Obama Administration has adopted "smart power" to frame a strategy using "the full range of tools at our disposal – diplomatic, economic, military, political, legal, and cultural."...
To frame the conversation I provide three propositions:
First: public diplomacy and strategic communication are analogous – not antithetical. Diplomats tend to use PD. Soldiers tend to use SC. They are not separate analytical categories. All the central characteristics in PD are found in SC. Understanding the perceptions and attitudes of others. Engagement and dialogue. Advocacy and persuasion. Advising leaders. Evaluation of impact. All the time dimensions in PD – 24/7 news streams, medium-term campaigns, and engagement over years and decades – can be found in SC.
SC and PD share the same methods. Analyzing the information environment. Framing policies and issues. Press conferences and use of web-based media. International exchange and visitor programs....The military has an important role to play in public diplomacy.3 Today’s armed conflict
occurs increasingly “among the people.” [...]
Links to key PD/SC information war articles: http://www.carlisle.army.mil/dime/strategic_communication.cfm
Report of the Defense Science Board Strategic Communications Task Force